October 6, 2019 Markham-Stouffville Riding Report
METHODOLOGY AND LOGISTICS
The Re-Elect Jane Philpott campaign commissioned Oraclepoll to conduct a survey of residents in the Federal Riding of Markham-Stouffville about their vote intent.
In total, N=301 voting age residents 18 years of age and older were interviewed with N=201 from Markham and N=100 from Stouffville. Respondents were screened to ensure they were residents of the Riding and eligible to vote.
The survey screened to verify that only residents from the Riding, 18 years of age or older were interviewed.
All surveys were conducted by telephone using live operators at the Oraclepoll call centre facility. The surveys were conducted using person-to-person interviewing (CATI) and random number selection (RDD). The RDD dual sample frame was inclusive of land lines as well as cell phones numbers.
A total of 20% of all interviews were monitored and the management of Oraclepoll Research supervised 100%.
Surveys were conducted from the days of October 4th to October 5th, 2019.
Initial calls were made between the hours of 6:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. Subsequent call-backs of no-answers and busy numbers were made on a (staggered) daily rotating basis up to 5 times (from 10:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m.) until contact was made. In addition, telephone interview appointments were attempted with those respondents unable to complete the survey at the time of contact. If no contact was made at a number after the fifth attempt, the number was discarded and a new one supplemented it.
The margin of error for the N=301 sample is ±5.6%, 19/20 times.
All N=301 respondents were asked which Party and their candidate they would most likely vote for or be leaning towards if the federal Election were held today.
The independent candidate Jane Philpott has the backing of 38% of decided voters and in a close race is +3% ahead of the Liberal Helena Jaczek who sits at 35%. The rest of the field is spread among the Conservatives with candidate Theodore Antony at 10%, the Roy Long Green ticket at 9% and the NDP with Hal Berman at 6%. Jeremy Lin and the People’s Party trail with 2%.
Jane Philpott leads among females, 18-34-year old’s, lower earners and among Markham residents. The Liberals are stronger among males, while their support drops among lower earners but have roughly consistent age support.
Twenty four percent of voters are undecided. More females, higher earners and those 35 or older are undecided.
The N=229 that named a candidate or Party in the first-choice vote question were then asked if there is a chance they may change their mind or switch their vote.
The N=44 that said there is a chance they may change their first-choice vote were asked to name their second choice.
Jane Philpott as an independent candidate was the preferred choice of most Greens that may switch (78%), followed by 52% of Liberals and half of Conservatives.
LIKELIHOOD TO VOTE
All N=301 respondents were asked if they would be very likely, likely or unlikely to vote in the Election.